Shortly after Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Belarus's president briefed his security officials on the war. As he moved his pointer about a map showing the routes along which Russian troops had invaded Ukraine, sharp-eyed observers noticed that the troop movements depicted in the south-west of Ukraine did not stop at the port city of Odesa. An arrow on the map indicated that Russian troops intended to advance into the neighbouring country, the former Soviet republic of Moldova, as well. Had Lukashenka slipped up and inadvertently revealed Russia's war plans? Or was it psychological warfare?
Moldova is Europe's poorest country after war-torn Ukraine and, arguably, one of the continent's least known. The comedian Tony Hawks, when not dragging a fridge round Ireland, played the Moldovan football team at tennis because the only thing he knew about the country was 'the names of the eleven men printed on the inside back pages of the newspaper.' Few west Europeans visit the capital, Chisinau, and fewer still the sliver of land on the east of the Dniester river.
Russian troops have been based in the separatist sliver of Transnistria since 1992, following a short war between separatists and the Moldovan army. Concerns that Russia would seek to seize Transnistria bubbled up anew when it annexed Crimea in 2014 and the disputed territory has been watched with concern since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Home to one of Europe's largest stores of munitions, renewed fighting would be a severe worry – and fears it could be 'the next target of Russian aggression' keep surfacing in western media.
Moldova's 'European path'
This weekend Moldovans go to the polls. As well as voting for their president, Moldovans are casting votes in a referendum on changing the country's constitution. The referendum is de facto a referendum on European Union (EU) membership; if the constitutional changes are approved, the government will have a mandate to push ahead with EU ambitions.
The EU formally opened accession negotiations with the pro-EU government of Maia Sandu late last year. Opinion polls suggest that Sandu, who is standing for re-election, is the most popular candidate in the presidential election with support for her standing at between 25% and 33%. Officials in Brussels are almost certainly keen to see Sandu stay in power because she is one of Moldova's strongest advocates for an EU future.
Sandu needs to secure an absolute majority to reclaim the presidency. Since her two rivals polling next best are both members of Russophile political parties, the outcome of this weekend's vote is far from assured and it is likely to go to a second round run off. Those leading rivals, Alexandr Stoianoglo and Renato Usatii, have both faced accusations of corruption and maintain close ties to Russia.
As to the referendum, opinion polling suggests that the constitutional amendments will pass. A poll by CBS-AXA found that 63% of Moldovans support a 'Yes' vote for the changes. Interestingly that is nearly double the figure that supports Sandu, which suggests an appreciable degree of dissatisfaction with her. Despite her sterling efforts to lead her country into the EU in line with the popular will, she has faced some criticism for failing to stamp out corruption and wrest political influence away from Moldova's oligarchs.
Russian influence
Since the Soviet collapse, Russia has seen Moldova as falling within its sphere of influence. There is a small population that identifies as ethnically Russian and 10% of the population speaks Russian as a first language according to the CIA World Factbook (that may be an underestimate). Some Moldovan citizens serve in the 1,500–strong Russian army presence in Transnistria and half of Moldovans consider Russia to be an important political and economic partner.
Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 left the Sandu government in Chisinau feeling extremely vulnerable, not least because they were outside NATO and the EU.
One tool of influence Russia wields is its energy supplies to Moldova, although this 'weapon' has been blunted since 2022 with Moldova having ended its dependence on Russian gas. This was necessary as Russia was able to reduce gas supply in 2022 and cause blackouts across a country wedged between Ukraine and Romania. For pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria and Gagauzia, a second breakaway region, there has long been plentiful supply of cheap or free gas for selling on to the population at a markup. This has allowed Russia to support the pro-Russian breakaway regions' budgets.
Even Moldovans suspicious of Russian influence see the benefits to Russia of people being able to fill their cars up with cheap fuel. As the mayor of a Moldovan town on the eastern side of the Dnieper river told the BBC in 2023: 'We can't talk about freedom and a better life, and at the same time tell them to pay 30 times more for their fuel... [T]here's a hidden price [to cheap gas] – it buys their support.'
Moscow has been more successful by spending money to seek influence through media and politicians. The oligarch and politician Ilan Shor, previously convicted for fraud and money laundering, is seen as a central agent of Russian influence. Earlier this year he claimed to have Russian citizenship. The Moldovan authorities accuse him of taking $15m from Russia to be used to bribe Moldovans to vote for pro-Russia candidates and against EU membership. Shor does not deny offering people money to vote a certain way, though he denies that the money comes from Russia or that his actions are illegal.
Shor has also been stirring things up in Gagauzia through his close ties to presidential candidate Irina Vlah. A former governor of Gagauzia, Vlah is staunchly pro-Russian and has been keen in the past to declare independence from Moldova. Russia is also openly buying influence in Gagauzia, handing out monthly payments to pensioners and public sector workers who register for a Russian bank card. It is a bold and flagrant way of winning over part of Moldova's population.
Russia has resorted to more covert means. Early last year the Moldovan government accused Russia of trying to overthrow the pro-western government; the coup planning had advanced to a late stage according to security officials.
On a knife-edge
The referendum should obtain the 'Yes' vote that Sandu seeks. Less clear is whether she will return for a second term, with the presidential election almost certain to go to a second round. Although the majority of Moldovans seek EU membership, they could still vote in a pro-Russian president. That would dent the EU's influence in the region severely and derail the country's EU aspirations in spite of the expected popular endorsement for membership.
A win for Sandu in the presidential election, coupled with support for constitutional changes, will be a step closer to EU membership for Moldova. It will also be an incentive to Moscow to step up its efforts to bring Moldova back under its control. It sees the populations in Transnistria and Gagauzia as key tools of influence, but business and criminal ties are also significant. Politics in Moldova is dirty and could get dirtier yet.
Thanks for reading! This post is free to read – please consider taking out a subscription for access to the full blog. It costs just GBP £2.50 annually.
Kommentarer