In August there were reports of Belarusian troops gathering on the Belarus–Ukraine border. On 25 August, the Ukrainian foreign ministry issued a statement saying that it would consider all Belarusian military facilities 'legitimate targets' should Belarus 'violate Ukraine's state border.'
A widespread view is that the Belarusian military is simply acting on Moscow's orders. Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council wrote: 'There is little doubt in Kyiv that the current Belarusian border build up has actually been orchestrated by the Kremlin.' The conclusion he draws is that the goal of the deployments is to force Ukraine to withdraw its troops from their incursion in the Kursk region of Russia. Given the Ukrainian army's limited resources, the threat of a renewed assault on the country from the north complicates its ability to keep troops inside Russia.
I agree that it helps Russia to have troops gathered along the Belarusian border with Ukraine. What I am less convinced by is the claim the Belarusian manoeuvres can be attributed to Russia issuing commands to Belarus's dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka. To my mind, without evidence to the contrary, it makes more sense to view deployments to the Ukraine border recently as a Belarusian decision. Contextual factors offer reasons to think Lukashenka or his military chiefs initiated the recent redeployments.
Viewing everything Lukashenka does as being 'on Moscow's orders' is lazy and paints Putin as far more in control than he is over the course of events round Ukraine's borders. Moreover, the actual numbers of troops deployed near the border appears very small.
Contextualising the decision
There is an extensive programme of planned military training drills involving Belarusian troops. But clearly the recent manoeuvres captured sufficient attention to consider there to be something out of the ordinary. An important bit of context here is that only a couple of weeks ago, Russian military commentators piqued Lukashenka with criticism of the Belarusian army. Lukashenka, keen to show his value to Vladimir Putin, on whom he depends heavily, therefore likely felt a need to respond.
The Russian criticism of Belarus followed a separate escalation along the Belarus–Ukraine border in July and Ukraine's subsequent incursion into Russia. The earlier escalation resulted from Russian troops arriving in Belarus in late June for a ceremonial event. Unsurprisingly Ukraine watched closely: the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine had begun with Russian troops arriving in Belarus for military exercises and staying behind. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus prompted Ukraine to move more of its troops to the border region. Belarus responded in kind. After short–lived tensions, Ukraine moved back its troops.
The Belarusian army reciprocated and withdrew its troops from the border in mid–July, three weeks before the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region. Seizing on this detail, Russian commentators criticised Lukashenka for the troop withdrawal. Former Putin adviser Sergei Markov wrote on his Telegram channel: 'In the attack on Kursk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are using the very troops that were transferred from the border with Belarus, because Belarus had suddenly withdrawn its troops from the border [with Ukraine].' In other words, he thought Belarus's actions freed up Ukrainian troops which could then be used to invade Russia. Many Russian military bloggers shared this viewpoint.
Lukashenka is unlikely to have liked the criticism. He may also have been startled by how easily Ukrainian troops swept into Russia. Imagine being in his shoes for a moment: paranoid, nervous about your own vulnerabilities, and knowing your army is far smaller and weaker than Russia's. It's not hard to see that he would quickly want to take steps to strengthen defences along the border.
After all, Belarus is a co–aggressor in Russia's war. It was a staging ground for the invasion in February 2022, throughout that year it allowed missiles to be fired into Ukraine from its territory, and it has supplied and repaired tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and more to Russia. Belarusian regime–affiliated hacking groups such as Ghostwriter have reportedly targeted Ukrainian IT infrastructure. Belarus has also been involved in Russia's nuclear blackmail. Just yesterday, 2 September, the Belarusian foreign minister said that a new bilateral treaty would be signed with Russia in December; it will cover 'the principles for the use of nuclear weapons'.
Some in Ukraine think that their army should be attacking Belarus and the Lukashenka regime. The ease with which Ukraine moved into Russia can only have encouraged these voices.
No invasion from Belarus any time soon
Most analysts agree that Belarusian troops are unlikely to join Russia's invasion directly. There is no enthusiasm among Belarusians to see their own troops join Russia's war; Chatham House opinion polls of Belarusians in the spring and summer of 2022 found 3% of respondents thinking Belarus's troops should be fighting alongside Russia. It is not difficult for Lukashenka to explain to Putin how badly things could develop; the last thing Putin needs is an unstable Belarus on Russia's western border. If the Russian military requires more troops in Ukraine, it has better options than involving an unmotivated Belarusian army.
The military monitoring initiative Belarusian Hajun concluded that the recent troop build up, which amounts to only 1,100 personnel at present, is insufficient to threaten Ukraine. The deployments are also up to 50km from the border, so represent no real prospect for a 'surprise attack' across the border. It hardly matches the rhetoric from Lukashenka who spoke of 'a third of [our] whole army' being moved (which would imply up to 20,000 troops).
Belarusian Hajun sees the recent rumours and movements as part of 'a disinformation campaign'. Belarusian troops are unlikely to invade Ukraine any time soon.
You can buy a copy of Paul's book on Belarus from your local bookseller.
"An accessible and insightful portrayal of this much–neglected country" – Edward Lucas
"Deeply–researched and valuable" – Times Literary Supplement
Buyers in the United States: https://a.co/d/ezs4ykh
Buyers in the United Kingdom: https://amzn.eu/d/8i4ec4f
Homepage image credit: Soldiers in Vietnam; public domain image from the defunct US information agency.
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