Autocratic political regimes love to turn their ire on the American–Hungarian businessman George Soros. They see the 'philanthropic' foundation he founded as part of a conspiracy to overthrow them, the worst of the think tanks and other NGOs doing insidious work on behalf of the CIA or similar agencies to uphold American hegemony.
It's a quirk of fate, therefore, that one of the biggest sources of illiberalism in the European Union over the past decade (and a bit) has been Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, who in the late 1980s studied in Oxford on a Soros Foundation scholarship. As prime minister, he has overseen backsliding on democracy and liberalism in Hungary.
Hungary took up the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second half of 2024 and, as usual when it comes to Hungary, immediately caused the EU a headache. Does the EU have any good options for dealing with Orban?
Hungary's peace mission: Putin's stooge?
Holding the rotating presidency is an important period for any member state, granting it agenda–setting powers within the Council for six months. Hungary's prime minister marked the occasion by embarking on an unannounced Ukraine peace mission – travelling to Kyiv, then Moscow, then Beijing, and then on to Florida to meet Donald Trump.
It would be fair to say Orban's tour riled EU leaders, not least because he used it to publicly criticise EU policy on the war and a suspicion in some quarters that he was acting as a go–between for Vladimir Putin and Trump. The Republican nominee, remember, claims he will end the war in 24 hours if he is re–elected to the US presidency. Some seem to think Orban is playing the role of messenger in the meantime.
In Moscow, Orban said that a ceasefire was necessary, which many see as an appeasement of Russia that leaves it in control of a huge swathe of Ukrainian territory. EU officials were quick to point out that Orban was not visiting any of the countries on his tour in any official EU capacity and could not speak for the bloc as a whole. Orban's sympathy for Putin's worldview is no secret, and many see him as little more than a Russian stooge.
Guest worker scheme: Russia's Trojan horse?
A less reported issue is equally concerning for the EU. Also after Hungary assumed the rotating presidency came its announcement that is would change the rules around its National Card scheme, which allows guest workers to obtain a visa through a simplified process.
Hungary announced that it would extend the scheme to Russians and Belarusians, giving them access to fast–track visas. EU politicians see this, understandably, as a security threat and a means for Russia and Belarus to smuggle intelligence agents into the EU potentially; once a 'guest worker' arrives in Hungary, they will have the full freedom of movement within the Schengen area. Moreover, both Russia and Belarus have a reputation for pursuing their political opponents outside of their own borders and the Hungarian policy change looks like it will only make such activities easier.
Hungary the spoiler
Hungary's policies are complicating the EU's efforts to maintain consensus on policy towards Russia and support for Ukraine. Indeed, the peace mission and National Card policy are not the only ways Hungary is riling the EU right now.
Budapest is also threatening to block a scheme supporting EU members sending weapons to Ukraine if the bloc doesn't lift a ban on oil imports from Russia. The removal of the ban would undermine the EU sanctions regime, which is pretty rickety to begin with, not least owing to Hungary's persistent reluctance to go along with new sanctions packages. These different policies all interact and complicate intra–EU bargaining.
Political will
The EU responded to Orban's 'peace tour' by taking the hosting of a summit away from Budapest and moving it to Brussels. Seventy European politicians, meanwhile, called on the European Commission to suspend Hungary's status as part of the Schengen area in response to its new visa rules. That would allow the EU to put checkpoints at the Hungarian border, though I can't imagine that will be something that the EU wants to do; internal borders are the opposite of what the European project stands for.
That limits EU options. Eventually Orban and his Fidesz party will be gone from power. For the time being, the EU appears to lack the political will to discipline Hungary more firmly and so allows Orban to keep giving it a headache instead. Orban understands the constraints Brussels faces and, unfortunately for Brussels, he also knows how to leverage it to his advantage.
And so, as so often, Europe will look to the United States for guidance. Whoever is in the White House from next year could influence how willing European leaders are to deal more firmly with Orban. An article in Politico shows how the US election matters. Kamala Harris's running mate in the US presidential election, Tim Walz, called Orban a dictator (something most EU politicians shy away from saying, in public at least).
Trump's running mate, JD Vance, thinks something else entirely. Vance has pointed to Hungary's education policy under Orban as an example of what the US should be doing. It will come as no surprise that Trump likes Orban, too. 'Very powerful, tough leader,' said Trump of Orban recently. Maybe there's something in that Putin–Orban–Trump theory.
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