Paul Hansbury
TALES OF UNREST: WHY RUSSIA MIGHT PLUNGE INTO NIGER
A few days ago, I wrote that Russia was unlikely to involve itself in the Niger situation, despite Yevgeny Prigozhin’s comments...
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Paul Hansbury
Aug 5, 20236 min read
A TURNING POINT IN THE WAR?
I’ve been away on a summer holiday and somewhat detached from the news. Still, I did skim through a newspaper each morning and there was...
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Paul Hansbury
Jul 25, 202310 min read
REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #3: NUCLEAR WEAPONS
I am not usually one to throw caution to the wind, but I am rethinking my position on the rhetoric round nuclear weapons.
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Paul Hansbury
Jul 13, 20235 min read
QUICK NOTES ON THE NATO SUMMIT
NATO’s annual summit has been and gone. The national delegations have returned to their home countries, dispersing like a bag of marbles...
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Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 20237 min read
NATO, BELARUS AND THE RUSSIAN NUKES
When NATO meets in Vilnius for its annual summit next week, Ukraine will rightly dominate the agenda. The lack of consensus within NATO abou
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Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 202310 min read
LUKASHENKA AND THE PRIGOZHIN MUTINY
One man unexpectedly came out of last month’s spectacle rather well: Belarus’s dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka. What was his role, really?
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Paul Hansbury
Jun 24, 20237 min read
PRIGOZHIN VS. PUTIN: A STORY OF RUSSIAN RAGE
He feels that he can say anything he likes without consequence. He gets away with airing in public his feud with the Russian military....
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Paul Hansbury
Jun 13, 20236 min read
AWKWARD INTELLIGENCE
In the context of the war in Ukraine, I’ve found myself thinking frequently about the relationship between the intelligence community and...
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Paul Hansbury
Jun 6, 20238 min read
ON UKRAINE'S COUNTER-OFFENSIVE
The Chaplain struggles to distinguish between illusion and reality. I can’t remember the context of the following quote from Catch-22...
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Paul Hansbury
May 30, 20236 min read
BELARUS NOTES #3: SUCCESSION
Speculation surrounded Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s recent disappearance from public. After a six-day absence, he reappeared scrubbed and...
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Paul Hansbury
May 22, 20236 min read
WILL SOUTH AFRICA ARREST PUTIN?
The war in Ukraine has thrown a spotlight onto South Africa’s relationship with Russia. Although South Africa publicly proclaims itself...
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Paul Hansbury
May 15, 20233 min read
BELARUS NOTES #2: LUKASHENKA'S HEALTH
I’m resisting a click-bait worthy title. BNE Intellinews has gone with the bold: ‘Is Lukashenko Dead?’ Like most people commenting on...
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Paul Hansbury
May 12, 20236 min read
REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #2: CRIMEA
We have been hearing about Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive since what seems like time out of mind. As spring arrived, reports claimed...
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Paul Hansbury
May 10, 20236 min read
AN INCONVENIENT TRIANGLE? RUSSIA, CHINA AND SUDAN
The conflict in Sudan has drawn some – but insufficient – attention back to Russia’s role on the African continent. That role, greatly...
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Paul Hansbury
May 4, 20234 min read
QUICK NOTES ON THE DRONE ATTACK
I am a bit slow to write, as usual. Yesterday’s news itself was quite remarkable. The BBC headline online blasted: RUSSIA ACCUSES UKRAINE...
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Paul Hansbury
Apr 19, 20235 min read
AND NOW IT’S VIRTUAL INSANITY
This blog post is about the sentencing of Vladimir Kara-Murza, and about political prisoners in Russia and Belarus. It is also about...
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Paul Hansbury
Apr 16, 20235 min read
REASONS TO STICK TO YOUR GUNS #2: MACRON'S FAUX PAS
I have some sympathy for Emmanuel Macron. He no doubt saw an opportunity in his state visit to China earlier this month, an opportunity...
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Paul Hansbury
Apr 13, 20237 min read
WHO LEAKED THE SECRET INTELLIGENCE DOCUMENTS?
Not Hansel, not Gretel. One of the big stories of the past week has been the leak of classified US intelligence papers. These are clearly...
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Paul Hansbury
Apr 4, 20235 min read
REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #1: CHINA AND MICROCHIPS
One of my goals in keeping this blog is to track my thought processes and I particularly want to keep notes on any event or information...
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Paul Hansbury
Mar 31, 20236 min read
BELARUS NOTES #1: NUKES
Last weekend Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will move tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to Belarusian territory. Meanwhile,...
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